Monsoon Forecast 2023 by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)
Recently the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has released the forecast of normal monsoon in 2023.
- The IMD has issued a forecast that the country as a whole is likely to receive 96 per cent rainfall during the southwest monsoon from June to September.
- The forecast is made on the basis of Long Period Average (LPA).
- LPA of rainfall is the average amount of rainfall recorded in a particular area over a long period of time for a given interval (e.g. – month or season). This long period can be 30 years or 50 years.
- In the last four years (2019 to 2022), normal or above normal rainfall has been recorded in India.
The IMD considers the following three factors affecting the Indian monsoon in its forecast:
- El Nino: Its presence is associated with poor rainfall in India.
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): It is the difference in sea surface temperature between the western Indian Ocean and the eastern Indian Ocean. A positive IOD is considered good for the Indian monsoon.
- Snow Cover: The level of snow cover during winter and spring in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia negatively affects summer monsoon rainfall.
El Nino: This is the warm phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this phenomenon, surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm.
La Nina: This is the cool phase of ENSO. Since the year 2019, India’s monsoon is under the influence of La Nina. Due to this, sufficient monsoon rains are being recorded in India.
Source – Indian Express
